UFC 252: The Heavyweight Trilogy Live from the UFC APEX (Las Vegas) Stitty Wap Predictions & Preview
- Stitty Wap
- Aug 12, 2020
- 6 min read
Talk about Covid and 2020 completely ruining everything. Saturday night we get to witness something truly special. Not only are two of the best to ever do it fighting, but, this is the last ride for the "Daddest Man on the Planet", "DC" Daniel Cormier. Unfortunately, the buzz is just not there for the fight that should one of the most anticipated trilogies of all-time, a truly rare occurrence to anyone not familiar with the sport. That's also not to mention the Heavyweight belt is on the line, this will definitively determine the baddest man of all-time. There is no bigger buzz-kill for this fight than the fact it will be in the UFC Apex without any fans, a big reason I don't think this fight is getting the pop it deserves.
But enough of the negativity, much like Brock Lesnar at UFC 200, this card is JUICED. After a great week coming in at 8-4 with two sniper rifle picks for Lock of the Night and Upset of the Night, we roll into this one with some confidence and big $ winners. As always with the PPV, I will highlight the Main Event, the Lock of the Night, the Fight of the Night, Upset of the Night, Notable Fights, and Prop Bets I will be hammering home on Saturday.
UFC 252 PICKS
OVERALL RECORD: 97-46-1 (8-4 last)
LOCK OF THE NIGHT: 3-2 (Beneil Dariush last) (Sean O'Malley)
UPSET: 3-1 (Andrew Sanchez last) ()
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier fight card, odds
Date: Aug. 15
Location: UFC APEX facility
Start time: 9 p.m. ET (Main card)
How to watch: ESPN+/PPV
Main Card/PPV
Heavyweight (265): Stipe Miocic (-105) vs. Daniel Cormier (-115)
Bantamweight (135): Sean O'Malley (-330) vs. Marlon Vera (+260)
Heavyweight (265): Jairzinho Rozenstruik (-160) vs. Junior Dos Santos (+135)
Featherweight (145): Herbert Burns (-260) vs. Daniel Pineda (+210)
Bantamweight (135): Merab Dvalishvili (-190) vs. John Dodson (+160)
PRELIMS
Lightweight (155): Jim Miller (-110) vs. Vinc Pichel (-110)
W. Strawweight (115): Virna Jandiroba (-310) vs. Felice Herrig (+250)
Featherweight (145): TJ Brown (-180) vs. Danny Chavez (+155)
W. Strawweight (115): Livia Renata Souza (-155) vs. Ashley Yoder (+130)
Heavyweight (265): Parker Porter (-150) vs. Chris Daukaus (+125)
Men’s Heavyweight Title/Main Event (265)
OBVIOUSLY THE FIGHT OF THE NIGHT
C: Stipe Miocic, (19-3 MMA, 13-3 UFC), (Pick 'Em)
#1: Daniel "DC" Cormier, (22-2-1 MMA, 11-2-1 UFC), (Pick 'Em)
The end of an era. Not only for one the best rivalries, not only for the debate of the Greatest HW of all-time, but, also for the career of Daniel "DC" Cormier. Regardless of the result Saturday night, DC has already announced this will be his last fight, something he has taken extremely seriously, even getting the old gang of Luke Rockhold and Cain Velasquez back together. For Stipe, who already holds the most consecutive title defenses at Heavyweight (3), this will punch his ticket as the baddest man on the planet. This fight also gives him the chance to erase any doubts that his last win was a "fluke" considering he has lost 4 of the 5 rounds he has fought DC thus far. Each fighter holds a TKO/KO victory over the other, but in very different ways. DC got it one early with a short right breaking from the clinch and Stipe in the 4th (after getting beaten up for 3 rounds) via lead hooks to the body and then landing the power shots up top. This is a game of adjustments, I can't wait to see who made the right ones.
For DC, in my opinion, this is his fight to lose. Looking at the stats, DC was landing the more significant strikes and with way more volume, many of those to the head (89%). So what does that tell us? He was looking for the KO. As we see many, many times, loading up on punches (no matter how successful) can come back to bite you in the ass if you can't put the other person away. AND, that's EXACTLY what happened. Because DC wanted the finish so bad he gassed himself by the 4th round. In doing so, he had no chance to chain wrestle or (attempt multiple takedowns in succession) and instead had to rely on single shots which Stipe was able to stuff. Seeing DC's cardio go Stipe started to light up the body, which was the beginning of the end. That being said, DC, can WITHOUT A DOUBT, stand with Stipe. That's not the issue. The issue is composure, something I thought even losing 3 rounds Stipe did a MUCH better job of. MIX IT UP! Keep Stipe guessing, make him drop the hands looking to defend the takedown and hit him clean.
For Stipe, GET GOING EARLY! To use a phrase by "The Notorious" Conor McGregor, he looked like he was stuck in the mud in there. He really did, DC was marching him down, landing big shots, making him reactive instead of proactive, and honestly beat him at his own game. A big thing I noticed was DC covering Stipe's hands allowing him to land first and taking away the range/distance control. Stipe, the champion that he is, kept his witts about him, made an adjustment to work the body with hooks causing DC to drop the hands and empty the tank. Making DC keep his hands down low, even if he isn't landing, is major for Stipe to maintain the range and distance advantage. Knowing DC is going to rely on wrestling you cannot let him get in close and get deep on those takedowns. Movement and cardio will pay dividends late which I think is Stipe's best chance to win this trilogy.
BET/PREDICTION (Cormier by Decision)
This is, BY FAR, the weirdest trilogy in the history of the UFC. I actually have picked the guy coming off the loss over the winner in both of the rematches. I thought it was a fluke for DC the first time around but after watching him dominate 1-3 last time out I can't see him making the same mistakes. When you look at the adjustments each guy has to make Stipe has a mountain to climb in a very short time. DC has the obvious wrestling advantage which Stipe had no real answer for in the 1st round and outstruck him for a majority of the 2nd. Keep in mind they are also fighting in a smaller cage which benefits DC seeing as there is less space for movement and more opportunity to trap someone against the cage. There is just too much in favor of DC here and very few ways I see Stipe even having a chance. DC goes out on top #ANDNEW
LOCK OF THE NIGHT
(Sean O'Malley (-330) vs. Marlon Vera (+260))
Not exactly going out on a limb with this pick but it gives me a great excuse to talk about it. The Suga Show, probably the biggest prospect we have seen in terms of hype since Conor McGregor looks to continue his roll at 135. In front of him has one of the most exciting and dangerous fighters in the division, a guy that has finished 12 of his 15 wins and has yet to be finished. Now O'Malley did hand Wineland his first KO loss ast time out, so not to say he can't be the one to do it...BUT Vera has the clear grappling/submission advantage something we haven't seen him be tested on yet. All that aside, Suga is so difficult to deal with on the feet, he is dynamic in his movement, has beautiful range control, and hits you with shots from crazy angles. The Suga Show 2.0 looks like a killer so I see this being more about how good O'Malley is versus Vera not being good enough. The odds are pretty high in this one but feel very confident riding with him in your big $ parlay.
UPSET OF THE NIGHT
(Jairzinho Rozenstruik (-160) vs. Junior Dos Santos (+135))
As safe as I went with Lock of the Night, I'm getting pretty ballsy with the Upset pick. Dos Santos is coming off two KO losses (Ngannou and Blaydes) with "Bigi Boi" losing himself via KO to Ngannou. With Rozenstruik coming off the brutal KO from Francis I'll be interested to see how that chin holds up, a big problem in my book for Dos Santos in his TKO loss to Curtis Blaydes. Prior to that, Jairzinho was outclassed for about 24 minutes in his fight with Alistair Overeem before lighting him up in the 5th and landing the lip splitting KO. One big weakness was the ground game as Overeem held him down whenever he pleased. Don't sleep on JDS testing Rozenstruik's ground game and experience to grind out a close win.
NOTABLE FIGHTS:
Bantamweight (135): Merab Dvalishvili (-190) vs. John Dodson (+160)
Not exactly thrilled we went from the Ion Cutelaba/Magomed Ankalaev rematch to jump off the PPV to this but it is a very interesting fight nonetheless. With both of these guys being in the lower tier of the top 15, Suga Sean is the most likely next move for the winner.
John Dodson has been somewhat of a gatekeeper at 135, most of his career success coming at 125/Flyweight where he challenged Demetrious "Mighty Mouse"Johnson for the belt twice. That being said, he did derail the hype train of Nathaniel "The Prospect" (very ironic) Wood last time out with a 3rd round TKO. Merab, the Georgian (country) and Serra/Longo product has been patiently waiting his chance to fight a name in the division after consistently breaking fighters with his pace and volume. This will be a technical clinic in what should be a high volume, chess match with the prize potentially being a Fight Night Headliner and opportunity to make a name off Sean O'Malley.
PROP BETS
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