UFC Vegas 5: Brunson vs. Shahbazyan, Stitty Wap Preview and Predicitions

After a crazy month on Fight Island in Abu Dhabi, the UFC returns from Yas Island to the Apex in Las Vegas for UFC Vegas 5. Huge bounce back week for the Stitty Wap Sports brand with a solid 11-4 performance including the Lock of the Night (Chimaev easy $$$), and Upset of the Night (Esparza). This week we have a bit of a unique situation, the switch up at Main Event last minute meaning Brunson/Shahbazyan will only be a 3 rounder. There a lot of fun fights on a pretty loaded Main Card. I make my picks for the Main Event, Fight of the Night, Lock of the Night, and Upset. Read, subscribe, call me an idiot for my breakdowns, whatever, just remember to #RideWithStittyWap.

OVERALL RECORD: 85-39 (11-4 last)

LOCK OF THE NIGHT: 2-1 (Khamzat Chimaev last) (Joanne Calderwood)

UPSET: 2-1 (Carla Esparza last) (N/A)

UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Shahbazyan fight card, odds

Date: Aug. 1

Location: UFC APEX facility

Start time: 9 p.m. ET (Main card) 

How to watch: ESPN+

• Middleweight (185): Edmen Shahbazyan (-300) vs. Derek Brunson (+240)

• W. Flyweight (125): Joanne Calderwood (-180) vs. Jennifer Maia (+155)

• Welterweight (170): Vicente Luque (-190) vs. Randy Brown (+160)

• Lightweight (155): Lando Vannata (-145) vs. Bobby Green (+125)

• Middleweight (185): Kevin Holland (-200) vs. Trevin Giles (+175)

• Bantamweight (135): Jonathan Martinez (-195) vs. Frankie Saenz (+165)

• Light Heavyweight (205): Gerald Meerschaert (-180) vs. Ed Herman (+160)

• Bantamweight (135): Ray Borg (-215) vs. Nathan Maness (+185) (Borg Withdraw)

• Middleweight (185): Markus Perez (-220) vs. Eric Spicely (+180) (Spicely Withdraw)

• Featherweight (145): Timur Valiev (-195) vs. Jamall Emmers (+165) (Valiev Withdraw)

• Bantamweight (135): Chris Gutiérrez (-320) vs. Cody Durden (+260)

(Via CBS)

Men’s Middleweight/Main Event (185)

#8: Derek Brunson, (20-7 MMA, 11-5 UFC), (Underdog)

#9: Edmen "The Golden Boy" Shahbazyan, (11-0 MMA, 5-0 UFC) (Favorite)

With the news coming out last week that Holm/Aldana would be moving to another card, UFC Vegas 5 will now be headlined by "The Golden Boy", Edmen Shahbazyan and perennial top 10 Middleweight, Derek Brunson. With the late news of this being the new Main Event, it will remain a 3 round bout. This is a big step up for the undefeated prospect Shahbazyan (22), who will look to follow the same path as Champion Israel Adesanya, who also defeated Brad Tavares and Derek Brunson back-to-back. As someone often referred to a gatekeeper and getting up there in age (36) this might be Brunson's last real shot to capture the signature win that propels him to a title shot.

The -300 line scares me a little in this strictly because Brunson is such a seasoned vet who has fought many of the top guys at 185 (Adesanya, Whittaker, Souza, Romero) so despite the fact he hasn't been a title contender he only loses to the top dogs. Given the fight is only 3 rounds should favor the power and inexperience of Edmen, only one of his fights have gone past the 1st round. Brunson's rush forward, barrage style has been his downfall in his UFC career, losing all the fights mentioned above via KO/TKO. If he fights that way against Shahbazyan, prepare to cash in your TKO/KO bets as it will be a very short night for Brunson. Don't sleep on Shahbazyan's wrestling ability either, although he doesn't have the credentials of Brunson, he has been training with Ronda Rousey for years and has shown excellent top control on the ground. Brunson needs to make the fight messy (which almost every fight he is in is) and try to grind out Shahbazyan.

BET/PREDICTION (Shahbazyan by TKO/KO)

"The Golden Boy" has looked so poised thus far in his career I don't think the jump up in competition will faze him. He is so calm and collected with his punches and kicks and uses his range so well that he should definitely find the holes in Brunson's defense. I see him tagging Brunson early and often and either finishing on the feet or mounting him for the TKO finish.

LOCK OF THE NIGHT (#3: Joanne Calderwood -180)

Just want to shout out JoJo Calderwood for being such a G. She was scheduled to face the Flyweight champ, Valentina Shevchenko, but the champ had to pull out with injury. Instead of waiting for her title shot she has decided to risk it on a short notice fight to stay active. Now I think she will win this fight but that's always so badass to me and solidifies her as the #1 contender right now in a pretty shallow division.

Overall this should be a pretty decent match-up that Calderwood should have the overall advantage. Both women are primarily strikers and will look to keep the fight standing. When it comes to the grappling aspect, it's pretty evenly matched so I don't see either side looking to take it there other than to put their stamp on the round. In the stand-up, I favor JoJo's versatility over Maia's boxing. If the fight gets in close Calderwood has very good elbows/knees from the clinch and her outstanding kickboxing will let her pick Maia apart from the outside. I feel very confident in choosing Joanne as my Lock of the Night.

UPSET OF THE NIGHT (N/A)

Due to the multiple withdraws, I will not be making an Upset pick this week.

FIGHT OF THE NIGHT (Vannata vs Green)

Pretty easy choice here for the Fight of the Night as this fight already won that honor back in 2017 at UFC 216. The fight was a stand-up war that ended with a controversial Split Draw that basically solidified the fact that they would run this back at some point in the future. Had it not been for an illegal knee in the first round that cost Vannata a point, he would have walked away with the split decision victory. That being said, sometimes these type of fights don't live up to the hype, especially a 2nd time around. But the 1st one was too good not to hold out hope it can repeat and definitely not a fight you want to miss as a casual or hardcore fan.

NOTABLE FIGHTS:

Middleweight (185): Kevin Holland vs. Trevin Giles

Another potential fight of the night candidate. Both of these guys look for the finish every time out and fight with a bit of a reckless abandon. I favor Holland's overall game a bit more here as Trevin has shown some holes in his grappling but he has the ultimate equalizer with his hands. Can't wait for this match-up and one I don't see going to the final bell.

UFC VEGAS 5 PICKS