Jacare Debuts at LHW in Front of Home Crowd: UFC Fight Night

All my predictions, breakdowns, and bets ahead of UFC Fight Night 164 in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Jan Blachowicz (-200, 24-8, #6 LHW) vs. Ronaldo Souza (+170, 26-7, #8 MW)

Pretty good main event for the home Brazilian fans. Jacare makes the move up to 205 in a really tough fight against Blachowicz. I really like Jan in this one, Jacare is coming off a lopsided decision loss to Hermansson and Jan just sparked Luke Rockhold in his last bout. Jan is a big LHW and I don't really see how Jacare will be able to get in his range, take his power, or take him down which is where he would ultimately have the advantage. Blachowicz by TKO.

Mauricio Rua (-260, 26-11, #14 LHW) vs. Paul Craig (+200, 12-4) Another Brazilian legend makes the walk this weekend in Shogun Rua. It feels like Shogun has lost 4 straight like most of the UFC old-timers but he has actually looked great winning 4 of 5. He takes on Paul Craig (4-5 in the UFC) in the co-main. Outside of a loss to Anthony Smith (who has been on fire at LHW), Shogun has beaten the likes of Corey Anderson, Tyson Pedro, and Gian Villante. Shogun easily in this one by TKO.

Charles Oliveira (-355, 27-8, #13 LW) vs. Jared Gordon (+295, 15-3)

This is a very interesting fight. Oliveira (another Brazilian) takes on the very aggressive Flash Gordon. Oliveira has choked out 6 of his last 7 opponents since his return to 155, the only one he didn't? Jared's teammate Paul Felder. While Gordon is not Felder, he might be able to use the constant pressure and awkwardness to wear down Oliveira (who has had conditioning issues) and make this a messy fight. However, Gordon has at times gotten reckless and with a guy that snatches limbs like candy from a baby I think he will get caught in something. Oliveira by Submission.

James Krause (-185, 26-7) vs. Sergio Moraes (+160, 14-5-1)

This is a weird one. James Krause is currently riding a UFC best 5 fight win streak including a TKO win against Warlley Alves while Moraes is on a 2-fight skid where he was last KO'd by Alvarez. I can't see the 37-year old pulling off the upset. Krause by Decision.

Francisco Trinaldo (-125, 23-7) vs. Bobby Green (+105, 24-9-1)

This is very tough one to call and should be a pretty even fight. Trinaldo has the power and size on Green but King Bobby has the speed, volume, and shell boxing style to avoid the big shot. Not really sure how to call it, can see this one going to a split decision but for my money i'll go after the extra $. Bobby Green Split Decision.

Warlley Alves (-120, 13-3) vs. Randy Brown (EVEN, 11-3)

This is another confusing fight. Both guys seem to be in the position to really turn the corner as they both have had up and downs in their UFC career so far. I see the real difference in this one being the 6 in. reach advantage for Brown. As long as he can stay out of dangerous positions with Alves he should grind out the W. Brown by Decision.

Douglas Andrade (-240, 25-3) vs. Renan Barao (+200, 34-8) How the mighty have fallen. A few years back Barao was considered a top pound-for-pound fighter but has not looked right since getting Rousey'd by Dillashaw (2-6 since). He is currently riding a 4-fight losing streak and will more than likely be gone from the UFC with a loss. While Andrade has not been setting the world on fire, his last loss was to rising star Yan. Nothing about Barao has made me think he can bounce back in this fight (including missing weight in the last 2). Andrade by Decision.