Stitty Wap Bets: UFC 248 Solider of God vs. The Last Stylebender

Another week, another edition of Stitty Wap UFC bets. We have what looks to be the last title shot for the two challengers in Joanna and Yoel, we have some potential UFC stars and prospects making their return, and most importantly, we have a legendary dance off between the Main Event fighters for the brand. But in all seriousness, this card is super underrated and really was a pain in the ass to breakdown and pick. But that's why I get paid the big bucks (not really but share my blog so I can) so here we go, UFC 248. Always remember #RideWithStittyWap.

Men's Middleweight Title Fight/Main Event (185)

C: Israel "The Last Stylebender" Adesanya, (18-0 MMA, 7-0 UFC), (-167, Favorite)

#4: Yoel "Soldier of God" Romero, (13-4 MMA, 9-3 UFC), (+135, Underdog)

There has been a lot of talk about Yoel not deserving a title shot coming off two losses. And those people are what we call idiots. Yoel lost two very controversial decisions in a row that wpuld have put him in this position anyways. The truth of the matter is, there are no real contenders right now at 185 so why not give the scariest human being in the division a shot at the belt one last time? And shoutout to the Stylebender and his brass balls, the dude could have waited until a new contender emerged, but said nah, give me the boogeyman, my legacy won't be complete without fighting him. And as a result, we have a banger of a Main Event.

Shoutout to Dom Cruz and Gilbert Melendez, they do an unreal job breaking down fights and giving keys to victory.

For Adesanya, I really think he is going to dictate much of this fight. As you see in the Gastellum fight he had a lot of trouble getting out of the way of the overhand left, which, is the shot Yoel used to send Luke Rockhold's head from Australia back to the US. He spent entirely too much time in the pocket relying on head movement and trying to counter instead of making Kelvin overextend at distance and counter, which he adjusted for in the last couple rounds and nearly put him out. We saw him use that adjustment in the Whittaker fight, Whittaker tried to lunge in like Kelvin but Adesanya wisely moved backwards out of harm's way and countered with two hooks that earned him the strap.

For Romero, he needs to re-implement his wrestling in this fight. Now Israel has gotten much better in his wrestling defense, but let's be honest, he hasn't faced a Silver Medalist with the explosiveness of a Cuban Missile. Yoel is so strange to watch fight, he essentially stands in the pocket and takes big shots will he continues to move forward, looking for that one explosive shot to put the lights out. He basically gives away rounds and just hunts for the finish, not the best strategy against an elusive fighter like Israel.

PREDICTION/BET

Adesanya by Decision (-167).

I was super tempted to take Yoel in this fight. Yoel throws similar lunging overhand lefts to Gastellum with much more power. That coupled with the fact Yoel is the far superior wrestler and could take Izzy down and really wear on him. The problem? Yoel doesn't use the wrestling for God knows what reason. And until I see him implement that part of the game, I don't see him winning a kickboxing match with Izzy. Izzy also made a major adjustment in the Whittaker fight and showed his talent and creative striking ability. Look for Izzy to evade early on and pour it on late to take the decision. #ANDSTILL

Women's Strawweight Title Fight/Co-Main Event (115)

C: Zhang "Magnum" Weili, (20-1 MMA, 4-0 UFC), (-185, Favorite)

#4: Joanna Jedrzejczyk, (16-3 MMA, 10-3 UFC), (+145, Underdog)

Now this is an extremely fun fight, with two very ferocious strikers. A lot of the success can be attributed to their abilities to push their opponent back with pressure and combos due to the danger they posses with every attack. Joanna is going to be more of the volume striker, look for her to keep the distance and land volume for 5 rounds and stay away from the power. Weili on the other hand will look to impose her will coming forward and throwing multiple strikes to eventually land that big right or the powerful knees out of the clinch.

The real key here is Power vs. Endurance. Weili just took out Andrade in 42 seconds with a flurry of punches and knees from the clinch that were absolutely brutal to watch. Joanna has had a very tough time early in fights (Rose, Valentina, Gadelha) finding her rhythm and distance, mainly due to her opponent's heavy pressure/pace early. Joanna has also shown the ability to maintain her pace rounds 1-5 and really loves to turn it on in the championship rounds. If she can survive the storm early it can get really interesting late as Weili has never gone past 3 rounds.

BET/PREDICTION

Joanna by Decision (+145).

Now I'll admit, part of this pick is based on my pure fandom of JJ, but, I also love the experience here. I think she turned the corner from those Rose fights and looked like a killer

against Michelle Waterson. If she can evade and frustrate Zhang early, she can take her into some really uncomfortable waters as the fight goes on. Joanna is an intense person in general and knowing this is probably her last shot, I think she will find a way to pull off the upset. #ANDNEW

FIGHT OF THE NIGHT

Men's Welterweight (170)

Alex "Cowboy" Oliveira, (18-8-1 MMA, 9-6 UFC), (-215, Favorite)

Max "Pain" Griffin, (15-7 MMA, 3-5 UFC), (+175, Underdog)

Another great fight as my pick for the Fight of the Night. While this is one of the most stacked cards in awhile, the stakes ultimately lead me to believe this will be a war. Both men are in danger of getting their walking papers, "Cowboy" 3 fight losing streak and Griffin losing 4 of 6. This was actually my pick for "Upset Alert"but no doubt could go either way.

This should be a stand and bang affair, Cowboy the Muay Thai fighter with wild, heavy punches and kicks and Griffin the more technical heavy-handed boxer.

I think Cowboy has the ability to dictate this fight. Can he keep Griffin out of the pocket and utilize the clinch/wrestling when he closes the distance to keep him guessing? Oliveira has shown an ability to really confuse opponent's but also has shown a weakness in getting drawn into a brawl where he does not really have the technical/speed of his foe (Perry, Medeiros). Griffin has very heavy hands but also struggles in the grappling department.

BET/PREDICTION

Griffin by Decision (+175).

Both of these guys have proven to be ultra tough throughout their UFC careers. The big difference is going to be the war of attrition. Griffin has been known to dig deep in the 3rd round where Oliveira has struggled to keep pace. Griffin withstands and grinds out the W.

PROSPECTS

Men's Featherweight (145)

"Sugar" Sean O'Malley, (10-0 MMA, 3-0 UFC), (-350, Favorite)

José "El Teco" Quiñónez, (8-3 MMA, 5-2 UFC), (+275, Underdog)

The return of the Sugar Show! After 2 years of dealing with bullshit tainted supplements (too bad he's not Jon Jones) Sean O'Malley finally (hopefully) returns this weekend to take on his toughest test yet. Now it is very hard to say how this fight will look, Sean is super flashy, creative, and tough (literally won his last fight with a broken foot). But, he has also shown some weaknesses so far in his defense (hands low, takes a good amount of shots) and wrestling. I almost was tempted to put this fight in the "Upset Alert"section but all indications are Sean spent most of the last two years addressing these areas.

Expect a very grapple heavy attack from Quinonez, he likes to stay on the outside throw low kicks and clinch as his opponent closes the distance. O'Malley cannot allow himself to get drawn into a slow-paced, grind fest. O'Malley has the reach advantage and should look to counter when Jose steps in with that low kick, which has been an issue in past fights.

BET/PREDICTION

O'Malley by TKO (-350).

Ultimately, the Sugar Show will return in a big way. AS mentioned, Quinonez does not do a great job of defending when he comes in with the kick. O'Malley has pop in both hands and from many different angles. I see him catching a clean shot at some point and continuing his rise to the top 15.

LOCK OF THE EVENT/BIG MONEY WINNER

Men's Lightweight (155)

Mark "The Olympian" Madsen, (9-0 MMA, 1-0 UFC), (-225, Favorite)

Austin "Thud" Hubbard, (11-3 MMA, 1-1 UFC), (+175, Underdog)

Another classic striker vs. grappler here as Mark Madsen looks to continue his undefeated career. Most of the time I'd say be cautious with such a one-dimensional fighter as they tend to eventually get exposed but Mark has shown a pretty impressive arsenal thus far. It took just a few seconds to get the fight to the mat in his UFC debut and showed ferocious ground n pound to get the W. This is not a huge step up in competition as Hubbard is also very young in his UFC career and should be a relatively dominate victory for "The Olympian".

BET/PREDICTION

Madsen via TKO (-225).

Madsen takes Hubbard down and doesn't let him up. I see some nasty GnP until the ref steps-in and waves it off.

UPSET ALERT

Men's Welterweight (170)

Li "The Leech" Jingliang, (17-5 MMA, 9-3 UFC), (-270, Favorite)

Neil Magny, (21-7 MMA, 14-6 UFC), (+210, Underdog)

One of many fights that could have ended up as the Fight of the Night and a lot more questionable than the odds suggest. Jingliang is one of the most exciting fighters in the 170 division, (5 of the last 6 were FOTN/POTN) he looks to take your head clean off with every shot he throws. Magny is a seasoned vet, having squared off with some of the division's best. He utilizes his volume and clinch to gas his opponent's and grind out the decision.

This fight is pretty cut and dry. Can Magny wear off the initial onslaught from Jingliang and take over in the later rounds? Can Jingliang land a massive shot and avoid the clinch early on? This fight has the potential to be the Fight of the Night as well and is pretty genius match making by the UFC. It's the chance for an established vet to pick-up a quality win or a chance for another Chinese star to rise.

BET/PREDICTION

Jianliang by TKO (-270).

UPSET ALERT

Men's Lightweight (155)

Drakkar Klose, (11-1-1 MMA, 5-1 UFC), (+125, Underdog)

Beneil Dariush, (17-4-1 MMA, 11-4-1 UFC), (-155, Favorite)

Another great fight that is flying under the radar. While not much of an "upset" I definitely think Klose can pull this fight out. Overall, I really like Dariush's complete game, black belt in bjj, technical Muay-Thai, and surprising power. If Dariush can stay on the outside and pick Klose apart or force a bad shot and position, it should be a W for Beneil.

However, Dariush has also shown an ability to get caught and fade in fights which is where Klose can take advantage. Klose has a really strong offensive output mixed in with smothering wrestling. If he can gas Dariush in the 1st round with his pace, he should be able to take over the latter part of the fight.

BET/PREDICTION

Klose by Decision (+125).

This fight was essentially a toss-up for me. I don't really like betting big for either fighter in this one. I am taking Klose for the odds (+125) and the fact I like his gas tank should this fight go the distance.

FIGHTS/BETS I LIKE

Emily "Spitfire" Whitmire def. Polyana Viana (Women's Strawweight 115), (-105)

Deron Winn def. Gerald "The Machine" Meerschaert (Men's Middleweight 185), (-174)

Stitty Wap's PARLAY

Madsen (-225), O'Malley (-350), Winn (-174),