Stitty Wap Bets: Vacant UFC Flyweight Gold on the Line at UFC Norfolk

Another week of fights means another edition of Stitty Wap bets. This time the UFC heads to Norfolk, VA as the vacant UFC Men's Flyweight belt is on the line. This is rare occurrence as the belt will be vacant thanks to Henry Cejudo deciding to fight guys on two-fight losing streaks. Nevertheless, a nice opportunity to watch a title fight without having to spend the $65 on PPV. Please enjoy, subscribe and, as always, #RideWithStittyWap.

Vacant UFC Flyweight Title Fight/Main Event (125)

#1: Joseph "JoeJitsu" Benavidez, (28-5 MMA, 15-3 UFC), (-150, Favorite)

#3: Deiveson "Deus da Guerra" Figueiredo, (17-1 MMA, 5-1 UFC), (+130, Underdog)

This fight could/should easily be the fight of the night but, that's no the way we do things here at Stitty Wap bets. So for that reason I'm just going to breakdown this fight and give my prediction. This is a classic sprint vs. marathon match-up and a rare treat as it is an ESPN+ Fight Night.

Deiveson has real power for a 125 lb'er. He is a very hard fighter to get a read of as he loves to switch stances and has fantastic counter crosses with both hands with explosive speed. That's not to mention the nasty submission skills he has (ask Tim Elliot's neck). There is not a question as to why Figueiredo has lost 1 fight so far in his UFC career and is a real danger to Benavidez in this one.

On the flip side, Benavidez has gone toe-to-toe with the best of the best in the sport for a very long time. Outside of Sergio Pettis (a truly bullshit decision), Joe has only lost to "Mighty Mouse" and Dominick Cruz, two of the most dominant UFC Champs ever. So the resume speaks for itself. Joe is so fluid in his striking able to push forward, get the head off line, and work the head and body flawlessly. He has no fear of putting himself in harms way but also crafty enough to avoid real damage. But they don't call him "JoeJisu" for nothing, Joe's scrambling ability is tops in the game (as was seen in his last fight with Jussier Formiga). Look for Benavidez to really frustrate Figueiredo and take him into deep waters.

PREDICTION I really like Benavidez in this fight, championship experience means everything and outside of the Demetrious he has knocked off all the top contenders (including Henry Cejudo). I would not be shocked if Figueiredo was able to catch Benavidez coming in and put him out but I always favor the overall game and experience especially when it's someone that has been in multiple Championship fights. I think Joseph will be able to push the pace early, dig into the body and that gas tank and dominate the latter part of the fight. Not to mention, Formiga was able to control Figueiredo when they last fought through well-timed take-downs and I expect Benavidez to go to that well if the fight starts to get hairy.

BET #ANDNEW Joseph Benvidez by Decision (-150)

FIGHT OF THE NIGHT

Men's Middleweight (185)

Tom Breese, (11-1 MMA, 4-1 UFC), (-135, Favorite)

Brendan "All In" Allen, (13-3 MMA, 2-0 UFC), (+115, Underdog) A lot of really close match-ups on this card, especially in the eyes of Vegas. The one that really stands out to me is Tom Breese, looking to fight for just the second time since 2016, against the rising Rofusport prospect in Brendan Allen. Now I have seen Tom Breese fight in person, and, unfortunately, it was an awful fight (UFC 199 against Sean Strickland). This fight will be his first since the 2018 TKO of Dan Kelly. Allen on the other hand has made some noise since bursting on the scene with 2 RNC wins, which includes a victory over notable Middleweight Kevin Holland. Allen took a beating in the 1st round of that fight, but, weathered the storm and got the finish in a really ballsy performance. Breese being a UK has natural striking/power ability and can be a real force in the 185 division, not to mention a black belt in jiu jitsu.

As much as I would like to take Allen in this one, my gut is telling me Breese. Allen was really getting beaten up on the feet in his last fight and I'd expect similar here. The only difference is the ground ability of Tom Breese to negate Allen's submission attempts and keep the fight standing. I think Allen will have moments but I ultimately like the vet Breese here.

BET Breese by TKO (-135)

PROSPECTS/CONTENDERS

Men's Featherweight (145)

Aalon Cruz, (8-2 MMA, 1-0 UFC), (-175, Favorite)

Spike "The Alpha Ginger" Carlyle, (8-1 MMA, 0-0 UFC), (+155, Underdog)

Really interesting match-making here by the UFC. Not often so you see two young prospects meeting up so early in their UFC careers. But that's what were looking at here with Aalon Cruz coming off his brutal flying knee on DWTNCS and Spike Carlyle making his UFC debut. Much like the main event, this fight also fits into the upset alert category. It was a very close fight for Cruz on the Contender Series, but was able to show his killer instinct and get the finish.

Now Cruz is the more polished striker in this one, utilizing his range and fluid kickboxing which will be key as he has the reach advantage and Carlyle is the powerful wrestler that can turn the lights out. I usually favor the wrestler in this type of match-up, especially when I am not ultra impressed with prospects the UFC pumps up. But, looking at the reach advantage and fluidity Cruz has, I think he will be able to scratch this one out.

BET Cruz by Decision (-175)

LOCK OF THE EVENT/BIG MONEY WINNER

Stitty Wap Can't Miss PARLAY

Felicia Spencer (-800), Megan Anderson (-225), Grant Dawson (-420)

UPSET ALERT

Light Heavyweight (205)

Ion Cutelaba, (15-4 MMA, 4-3 UFC), (+175, Underdog)

Magomed Ankalaev, (13-1 MMA, 3-1 UFC), (-210, Favorite)

FIGHTS/BETS I LIKE

Serghei Spivac (-120) vs. Marcin Tybura (EVEN) Spivac (-120)