Stitty Wap Bets: Your Guide to UFC 245
- Stitty Wap
- Dec 12, 2019
- 9 min read
Crazy LOADED card coming up this Saturday from Vegas. 3 Title Fights, stacked prelims, and all the MAGA hats and fake UFC belts for your life time. This is gonna be a late one, so grab a case, a good spot on the couch, and if your like me, get ready to scream at your TV like your an extra cornerman because we have UFC 245 coming your way. I will break down every fight on this card because I'm a nerd and this stuff brings me joy but also so we can get rich (and by rich I mean make $100). YOU READY?
MAIN CARD
UFC Welterweight Title Fight/Main Event (170)
Kamaru "Nigerian Nightmare" Usman, Champ, (15-1 MMA, 10-0 UFC), (-185, Favorite)
Not many fighters in the division are more feared than this guy (even if he is only giving 30%). He showed just how good he was when he beat the living hell out of Tyron Woodley on his way to a 50-45 W that made him the first African UFC Champ. Usman has some serious power in his hands and ties that together with explosive timing and wrestling. It's no mystery why he is undefeated in the UFC and has all the tools to stay at the top for a long time.
Colby "Chaos" Covington, Contender, (15-1 MMA, 10-1 UFC), (+150, Underdog)
The most polarizing figure in the UFC. The WWE reject they call Colby Chaos Covington, the self-proclaimed people's champ. When he's not taking trips to the White House or hanging out with the first family he is leaving opponents in a pool of their own blood. The former Interim champ has been on a tear lately, not only taking out former champs in Robbie Lawler and Rafael Dos Anjos but dominating them. He has some of the best cardio in the sport and his in your face smothering style makes him an awful fight for anyone. If he is able to drain Kamaru's explosiveness in the first couple rounds we should see the Power Ranger belt change hands.
PREDICTION
I'm torn on this one. I really am. And as a fight fan that's exactly what you want in a title fight and main event. QUICK WARNING as a Casual fan this might be super anti-climatic and boring so don't expect a Conor/Nate Diaz style fight. This will be a grapple fest as both guys were All-American College Wrestlers. BUT. This match-up is so close. Both guys fight so similar and so different. And what I mean by that is, both guys push forward and will smother you with wrestling, the difference is their style. Colby is needs to really rely on his cardio and volume to frustrate Marty "Fake Newsman" and get those big arms to feel heavy in the later rounds. Colby isnt putting Usman out so he has to avoid the big power early and not let Usman use his top game to maul him on the ground.
I personally think Colby gets it done here by the slimmest of margins. I always favor cardio in these type of fights. Colby has shown the ability to walk through shots and wear his opponents down. I think Usman will be ablke to get him down but at a cost to his energy early. This fight is really a toss-up but I love fight going to the distance here. Neither guy is really much of a finisher, in fact, there has been a total of 5 finishes between two in 20 fights. Go with your gut for the winner but hammer like you've never hammered before on the fight going the distance.
Colby by Split Decision +150 Underdog.
Decision -275.
Co-Main Event/UFC Featherweight Title Fight (145)
Max Holloway, Champ, (23-4 MMA, 21-4 UFC), (-175, Favorite)
The Blessed Era rolls on with maybe Max's toughest fight to date. But, much like Conor, we say that every-time he fights someone new. Ortega was the one that was going to get ahold of a limb and submit him, Aldo was going to have too much experience and exploit the openings in Max's wild exchanges, and blah blah blah. But guess what? He keeps proving people wrong. The pace, heart, cardio, and most importantly fight IQ has made Max a nightmare at 145. Max is soo good at picking up on tendency and countering them later in fights, i.e. the 1st Also fight. Max also has shown an elite ability to stop the takedown (83%) and move through big shots. The real question, can he take Volkanovski's power? Valkanovski will be far and away be the strongest fighter Max has ever fought and the ability to keep the same pace. Don't sleep on this fight!!!!!!
Alexander Volkanovski, Contender, (20-1 MMA, 7-0 UFC), (+150, Underdog)
Alexander "the great" has been great so far in the UFC. The guy has not only called his shits against Aldo and Mendes, he has delivered. Volkanovski is an interesting case, he once weighed upwards of 200 lbs as a rugby star and that power has followed him through his fights. No doubt he has learned a thing or two from Israel Adesanya and Dan Hooker at City Kickboxing because he fluid in mixing his boxing and leg kicks to keep fighters off balance. You saw that in the Aldo fight, he stayed right in his face the entire fight, kept an exhausting pace, and had Aldo in Neutral all night. He can keep the same pace with Holloway and will use his National Champion level wrestling to perhaps take control of this fight.
PREDICTION
I have to ride with Blessed in this one. Even when you think someone has the tools to beat him Max is just a true champion and gets the job done. The bigger the moment the better the performance (which is a huge factor as Volkanovski has never gone 5 rounds). Max needs to use his Houdini like range management and counter the aggressive Volkanovski. It'll be interesting to see if Volkanovski can take it to the ground and how the match-up looks down unda (Australian joke) but until I see any different I'm saying the Blessed Era continue and...
Holloway (-175) by Decision.
UFC Women's Bantamweight Title Fight (135)
Amanda "The Lioness" Nunes, Champ, (18-4 MMA, 10-1 UFC), (-300, Favorite)
The Women's GOAT continues her warpath against the former UFC Women's champs as she takes on GDR. Interesting note about this fight is that GDR is the former 145 champ but wanted to do this one at 35. Any rate, I don't think it matters. She is so good. So damn good. Where do you beat her? She is ferocious on the feet with so much power, speed, and accuracy it's scary. I actually am scared watching her fight other women. Oh and btw she is a brown belt in Judo and a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu. It's unfair. She also has a TKO win over GDR from early in her UFC career and has gotten so much better since then. The only worry is if she tries to overextend herself and and gets caught but other than that, the double champ has a big advantage in this one.
Germaine "The Iron Lady" de Randamie, Contender, (9-3 MMA, 5-1 UFC), (+275, Underdog)
The Iron Lady GDR looks for revenge in this title fight with Amanda Nunes. Don't get me wrong, GDR can put anyone's lights out, as she did against Aspen Ladd in her last fight in just 16 seconds. And that's what she will have to do here. She needs to exploit an opening in the wild exchanges with Nunes and put her out with a big right. If not, this could be a pretty easy one to call.
PREDICTION
No offense to Germaine but you would have to out me in an insane asylum right next to Britney Spears (Shit, Christina Aguilera better switch me chairs, shout-out Eminem #RIPNickCannon). Anyways, I can't see Amanda losing here, she has amazing boxing and has the clear speed advantage and movement/footwork. If things get dicey she also can take this to the ground and get the finish. Nunes is the massive favorite for a reason.
Amanda by TKO 2nd Round. (-300)
UFC Bantamweight Division (135)
"Magic" Marlon Morares, (22-6-1 MMA, 4-2 UFC), (-200, Favorite)
Jose Aldo "Junior", (28-5 MMA, 10-4 UFC), (+160, Underdog)
“Tu, vai morrer!” Those were my exact thoughts when I saw the weight cut for Jose Aldo as he prepares to make the drop from 45 to 35.
Listen Aldo says the weight cut is going well and his nutritionist has him on track but cmon. He looks like he just got released from a prisoner's camp and hasn't eaten for a year. But, we'll see how little/much that makes a difference in this fight. This is another really good fight that is flying under the radar. Marlon just lost a title fight against Cejudo in June in which he was kicking Cejudo's ass with his explosive striking but gassed hard in the 2nd and was eventually finished. Which is pretty standard for how he fights, Marlon comes out fast, explosive, and hunts the finish from the opening bell. If Jose can withstand that initial storm, his championship experience should make this his fight to lose. However, I go back to the weight cut, how much will that hurt Aldo's chin (see TJ Dillashaw)? How much will that take away from his energy? All these things are too much for me to ignore.
Morares (-200) by TKO.
UFC Bantamweight Division (135)
Petr "No Mercy" Yan, (13-1 MMA, 5-0 UFC), (-500, Favorite)
Urijah "The California Kid" Faber, (35-10 MMA, 11-6 UFC), (+350, Underdog)
Who would have thought Urijah Faber would be in a #1 contender fight in the year 2019? Well, probably most people when he announced his return considering he has fought and lost 6 UFC Tile fights. Regardless, the Cali Kid is back and has a chance to get that belt for the 1st time in his career at the spry age of 40 and coming off the fastest TKO win of his career. The problem? He is fighting Frankenstein's son in Petr Yan. Yan has incredible boxing and a ton of power in his punches. He arguably lost every round of his Jimmie Rivera fight up until he was able to drop him at the end of every round. He passed the test in that fight but to be honest I thought Rivera showed ways to beat him. Can Urijah stand in the fire and time some take-downs and neutralize the striking advantage of Yan? I wouldn't count it out. But I still like Yan in this one, the fluid striking, pressure, and power is all in his favor, assuming he can stop enough takedowns I think he coasts to a W here. At -500 I don't like the risk and wouldn't touch Yan unless it's a parlay or you take the Decision.
Fight Goes the Distance.
PRELIMS
UFC Welterweight Division (170)
Geoff "Handz of Steel" Neal, (12-2 MMA, 4-0 UFC), (-250, Favorite)
"Platinum" Mike Perry, (13-5 MMA, 6-5 UFC), (+210, Underdog)
The classic People's main event. This is some savagery and great business move by the UFC brass. THey are going to punch each other and someone is going to bleed. This is the battle of the metal (platinum vs steel) and needs no other explanation other than don't miss this fight because there's a guarantee of a bloody mess.
You can never really tell what's gonna happen in these type of fights. Neal is super fluid and diverse with his kickboxing which he should be able to make Perry miss just enough. But don't ever count a guy like Perry out especially as he continues to improve his patience and accuracy. I think Neal is the better fighter but I really love Perry's style in this type of fight and think he can catch him with a big shot. I'm taking the upset here with Perry (+210) by KO.
UFC Women's Bantamweight Division (135)
Ketlen "Fenômeno" Vieira, (10-0 MMA, 4-0 UFC), (-245, Favorite)
Irene "Robles" Aldana, (11-5 MMA, 4-3 UFC), (+195, Underdog)
Striker vs. Grappler match-up here. I love when the UFC does this type of fight, the #1 contender at Women's Bantamweight in Vieira has a chance to not only solidify her place in the division but be on the same timeline as the winner. I like Vieira to grind out Aldana in this fight.
Vieira (-245) by Decision.
UFC Welterweight Division (170)
Matt "The Immortal" Brown, (21-16 MMA, 13-10 UFC), (-360, Favorite)
Ben "Killa B" Saunders, (22-12-2 MMA, 9-9 UFC), (+270, Underdog)
This one is for the hardcores, the old timers. Sadly, it looks like Killa B might need to hang it up soon having lost 4 of the last 6 by TKO/KO. That plays right into Matt Brown's hands, the dude is savage and look to decapatate every opponent Saunders has to close the distance to try for the clinch and I think Brown catches him with the same elbow that made Diego Sanchez turn into a gypsy.
Brown (-360) by KO.
EARLY PRELIMS
UFC Flyweight Division (125)
Chase "The Teenage Dream" Hooper, (8-0-1 MMA, 0-0 UFC), (-120, Pick 'Em)
Daniel "Kid Dynamite" Teymur, (7-3 MMA, 1-3 UFC), (-110, Pick 'Em)
This is classic UFC match-making. Give the young guy making his UFC debut from one the UFC shows a fringe UFC fighter to build his name and possibly get rid of the other. The problem? Teymur is a World Champ Muay Thai fighter with a lot of power. He is not the ideal match-up for someone making their debut especially when you see the difference in speed and adrenaline that is all part of the UFC. If Hooper can get this to the ground there is a good chance he can go to work but I really like the experience in such a close fight.
Teymur (-110) by Decision .
UFC Flyweight Division (125)
Brandon "The Baby Assassin" Moreno, (15-5-1 MMA, 4-2-1 UFC), (+120, Underdog)
Kai "Don't Blink" Kara-France, (20-7-1 MMA, 3-0 UFC), (-150, Favorite)
Been a huge fan of the Baby Assassin since his TUF days and massive short-notice upset win over Louis Smolka. Moreno has a lot of holes in his game but has a nose for finding a way to get it done. But, it's hard not to love Kai Kara-France's style and team at City Kickboxing. If this is a technical fight Kara-France should be able to pick Moreno apart and win a decision. If Moreno can get this to the floor, I like his chances at finding a submission and finishing the fight there. I'm leaning Kara-France here but this one could really go either way.
Kara-France (-150) by Decision.
UFC Women's Flyweight Division (125)
Jessica "Evil" Eye, (14-7-1 MMA, 4-6-1 UFC), (+145, Underdog)
Viviane "Vivi" Araujo, (8-1 MMA, 2-0 UFC), (-175, Favorite)
Another classic UFC match-up. The new contender vs. the last title challenger. A win here gives Araujo a real shot at the 125 strap. I really like Araujo's power and overall well-roundness and really don't see anywhere Jessica Eye can beat her.
Araujo (-175) by TKO.
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