UFC 244/BMF Title Preview

As Dana White says "ITS FIIIIIGHT WEEK." It's finally here! The fight that gave every fight fan the Buzz Lightyear wings. The "Baddest Mother Fucker" in the game belt. After a crazy weekend in which it looked like we might lose this one, the MMA gods, Uncle Dana, and USADA restored our faith in humanity. Not only am I excited for the Main Event but this card is pretty stacked:

*UFC and fans agree on a fun fight headlining a card*

USADA:

Main Card (10 PM ET, PPV

• Jorge Masvidal vs. Nate Diaz

• Darren Till vs. Kelvin Gastelum

• Stephen Thompson vs. Vicente Luque

• Derrick Lewis vs. Blagoi Ivanov

• Gregor Gillespie vs. Kevin Lee

Preliminary Card (8 PM ET, ESPN2)

• Johnny Walker vs. Corey Anderson

• Shane Burgos vs. Makwan Amirkhani

• Brad Tavares vs. Edmen Shahbazyan

• Andrei Arlovski vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Preliminary Card (6:30 PM ET, UFC Fight Pass/ESPN+)

• Jennifer Maia vs. Katlyn Chookagian

• Lyman Good vs. Chance Rencountre

• Julio Arce vs. Hakeem Dawodu

MAIN CARD

Jorge Masvidal (34-13) vs. Nate Diaz (20-11)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PRQIxPz3b0A

Was there anything that gave you goosebumps quiet like this? The energy in the building and anyone watching this fight was off the charts and as you can see by Jorge's face =$$$$. This is the first time I think every single UFC fan, Analyst, and member of UFC brass agreed on chasing the money fight. Now, I will say I love the idea of the BMF belt I wish this one was for the 165 lb belt (but I digress).

In terms of the fight, this is a strange one in I have no clue who will get their hand raised and that is what makes this fight awesome. Both these dudes are straight dawgs with that killed or be killed mentality. Neither one is taking a step back or getting gassed, neither one is tapping out or taking a TKO, and neither guy will break if they get down early or face adversity.

For Masvidal, he needs to have a strong start but also conserve that gas tank. Diaz is a notoriously slow-starter (as most volume strikers are) as is evident from his Pettis fight and both McGregor fights. Especially in a 5-rounder he likes to find his range and get a feel for the opponent's gameplan. The key here for Masvidal will be very similar to McGregor's success in the 2nd fight, attack the bottom half, use quick, explosives straights and hooks and get the hell out. You won't win the volume or endurance battle with Nate but if you can make them count you can do some significant damage as Diaz has shown a weakness in really getting his head off center-line and avoiding those heavy strikes.

For Diaz, he is going to have to weather the early storm. As we saw in the Pettis, Michael Johnson, and both McGregor fights he will take a lot of shots to the head and chin to wear opponent's down, find the range, and counter off their tendencies. We saw Nate get rocked a few times in that Johnson fight and dropped 3 times in McGregor 2, facing a guy like Masvidal with similar speed and a lot more power, that can spell an early night. The recipe is put there to beat Masvidal as Wonderboy showed, utilize the jab, stay at distance, and counter when Jorge comes in with lead hook. Also, don't be surprised if Nate takes a few shots early if he doesn't take it to the mat and control Masvidal similar to the way Maia did.

In all, if I had to choose, I'm taking Nate in this one. I think he's is too tough to put away early and has the cardio and ground game that will earn him the W in rounds 3-5. I see this being a very close fight and see no way this does not go to the judges. Diaz (48-47).

Darren Till (17-2-1) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (15-4)

What a ballsy fight for Darren Till. As a fan of Till I personally wanted to see a bit of an easier fight for him as he makes the move up to 185 but that is just not what the guy is made of. While he is taking on a former 170er as well Gastellum hits like a truck at this weight (even if he is a worm along with his manager Ali Abdela-sleeze, in fact all of Dominance MMA can go play in traffic).

In all seriousness, Darren has shown a vulnerability to shorter, explosive strikers. He has a bad tendency to throw hooks/uppercuts followed by the straight left which allow the shorter guys to get in his range and counter with heavy shots (i.e. Woodley and Masvidal) the problem with the heavy Muay Thai style Till has is he a bad habit of throwing his chin in the air and failing to get his hands up while in range. He does a beautiful job from distance but as someone how likes to come forward and looking at Kelvin's last fight with Stylebender (someone with significantly better head movement/defense) I see Till getting caught in this one at some point. Kelvin is sneaky quick and has some serious power in that left especially lunging in, dipping the head off center, and being able to string combos to get out of danger. Unfortunately,I have Kelvin by 2nd round TKO.

Stephen Thompson (14-4-1) vs. Vicente Luque (17-6-1)

Wow what a sneaky good fight this is as the pre-co-main event. "Wonderboy" coming off a brutal Superman punch KO loss to Pettis against Luque who is currently riding a 6 fight win streak including his last win which his knee made Mike Perry look like a fucking gremlin.

This will be an absolute chess match of a fight. Wonderboy is awesome at keeping the distance that quick in and out style with the front leg kick and quick 1-2 before disappearing. I think if Luque wins this fight it will have to be similar to the Pettis fight where he disrupts the timing with something crazy. While I think Vicente will have his moments I don't see Thompson losing a third straight, Wonderboy by Decision.

Derrick Lewis (21-7) vs. Blagoy Ivanov (18-2)

Derrick "Black Beast" Lewis makes his return after almost a year off on two-fight skid against the red hot Blagoy Ivanov. This will be the ultimate class of styles striking battle which I see going to the judges. Black Beast the heavy handed brawler will look to take out Blagoy who has made a career off beating bigger guys with his stick and move technical style. This will be very similar to the Tai fight for Ivanov and I believe will go the same way. Lewis has a knack for getting outclassed on the feet but as seen in the Volkov fight can put you out at any time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bPH5SQvzELQ

I want with all my heart to have another "my balls was hot" moment and with Trump in attendance that interview would be fire. My brain says Ivanov by Decision.

Gregor Gillespie (13-0) vs. Kevin Lee (17-5)

Underrated fight to kick-off the main card this weekend. Kevin Lee drops back down to 155 on a 2-fight skid to take on the undefeated rising star in Gillespie. Both guys are outstanding wrestlers which should cause this one to stay on the feet.

The most intriguing part of this match-up comes from Kevin Lee's side. He has been very vocal about the holes he sees in Khabib's game and Gregor is as close to a Khabib clone the UFC has. Kevin has shown he has problems off his back and with Gregor's chain wrestling he figures to end up there at some point. However, it'll be interesting to see the improvements in Lee's game with the move to Tristar. As all us MMA nerds know GSP is the king of using his reach with his jab and having world-class timing for the double leg. This one will probably bore the casuals but should be a Technical battle. Gregor by submission in the 3rd.

PRELIMS

Johnny Walker (17-3) vs. Corey Anderson (12-4)

Another #1 contender fight being relegated to the prelims. Johnny Walker one of the best personalties and fighting styles in all of MMA coming back from a shoulder injury (via the worm celebration) against a tough gritty wrestler in Corey Anderson. Now Corey is as boring as they come and NO ONE and I mean NO ONE outside of his team and management are rooting for him in this fight. He is not a draw whatsoever and his style makes Dana White binge Ben Askren fight.

This will show a lot about Johnny, mainly if he can hang with Jon Jones level wrestling. We all know he has the highlight reel KO ability but can he win a grind-it-out fight. I think Corey folds in the moment and Johnny (for the life of every MMA fan out there) gets the early KO and hopefully doesn't do the worm after. Johnny Walker 1st round KO.

Shane Burgos (12-1) vs. Makwan Amirkhani (15-3)

I mean this card is absolutely ridiculous. This fight won't get much shine but I will be absolutely electric. These guys go out every fight looking for the finish and this one can easily steal fight of the night (4 already between the 2 of them). Makwan looked really good his last fight but Shane has stood toe-to-toe and stopped some pretty tough guys. I have Burgos by TKO 2nd round.

Brad Tavares (17-5) vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (10-0)

This has the making to be an amazing fight or a complete ass whooping. Much like the Stylebender fight and fight prior this a classic gatekeeper fight in the UFC. Brad Taveras is a very tough vet who is very well-rounded but does nothing great. Edmen has looked like a world beater finishing his first 3 fights in the UFC. I almost always go with experience but my gut says Edmen will get it done by TKO early in the 1st.

Andrei Arlovski (28-18) vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik (8-0)

Bigi Boy (fantastic nickname) looks to take his undefeated record against the vet Arlovski. This fight is very reminiscent the of Tai Tuivasa fight for Arlovski, a chance to derail the hype of a heavy-handed striker or pass the torch. Normally I would go with Andrei to get KO'd but somehow he found a way to find his chin again. I still like Bigi Boy by decision.

EARLY PRELIMS:

Jennifer Maia (17-5-1) vs. Katlyn Chookagian (12-2)

Huge fight for the Women's 125 Flyweight division. Jennifer Maia #5 takes on Katlyn Chookagian #3 in what figures to be the #1 contender bout for Valentina (yikes). Katlyn has won a lot of close decisions which is not shocking as she is a grinder/wrestler and likes to make the fights ugly. Maia is riding a two-fight win streak and has very good stand-up. I always favor the wrestlers in these close fights and I like Katlyn by decision.

Lyman Good (20-5) vs. Chance Rencountre (14-3)

This will be Lyman's first fight since his submission loss to Demian Maia which is nothing to hang his head over. Not super familiar with Chance but I think Lyman 2nd round TKO.

Hakeem Dawodu (10-1-1) vs. Julio Arce (16-3)

Hakeem Dawodu kicks off the main card against Julio Arce. Dawodu has all the makings of a star in the UFC but has a pretty tough test with Arce. Dawodu by decision.

IN ATTENDANCE:

Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson

Confirmed by the man himself on Dana White's IG feed, The Rock will not only be in attendance but will wrap the belt around the winner of the BMF Title. Who knew the WME era would see there be a "Baddest Mother Fucker" Title introduced and the Rock being a part of it? Crazy world we live in.

Possible: Donald Trump/Colby "Chaos" Covington

Yikes. Colby has been the conductor of the Trump train since his Interim Title win in 2018, even visiting him in the White House with the belt and doing ever possible interview in the MAGA hat. Must pain him to know Trump will be showing up to watch his former BFF fight when he did not even make it to his. Colby loves to take every chance to steal the spolight and none would be bigger than Jorge's fight this weekend.

Possible: Conor "I wouldn't take a shit in Dagestan" McGregor

As everyone knows, Nate's mainstream popularity took-off with the shocking upset of McGregor back in 2016. Since then the pair has been closely linked together s there is still the lingering trilogy fight waiting. Jorge has expressed a desire to fight Conor over the past few months and Dana seemingly pissed Conor off saying Jorge was too big. I would not be shocked to see the Conor in attendance and the winner calling him out.

BETTING ODDS: