UFC 244 Gambling Guide

Here's a quick preview for my take on UFC 244 for tomorrow November 2nd at MSG. These are not my predictions but what I like gambling wise and why I like them, bet at your own risk.

I won't be betting on any of the Prelim fights so I won't bother going into those.

Main Card:

Jorge Masvidal -175 vs. Nate Diaz +145 -- Welterweight (Diaz +145)

What a fight this will be, literally chills running down my spince for this one. Both these guys are warriors and definitely deserve to be fighting for the BMF Title. That being said I like Diaz at +145 for this one for 2 reasons. 1. This fight is so close and evenly matched that its worth the lower risk for the higher reward. 2. Diaz is more well-suited for a 5 round fight. Nate is a notriously slow-starter as is evident from Conor 1 & 2 as well as the Pettis fight. However, as he showed in both of the fight he has an incredible chin and gas tank. Unless Masvidal gets it done early he will be drowning in Nate's world rounds 3-5 where Nate statistically thrives and with Nate's superior grappling skills I think he takes the decision in this one.

Kelvin Gastelum -250 vs. Darren Till +200 -- Middleweight (Till +200/Under 2.5 rounds)

Wow that's a huge disparity for this one. I am picking Gastellum to win this as an observer but I am putting my $$ on Darren Till +200 and the fight to be under 2.5 rounds. Till is a pressure fighter who is always looking for the big shot to put his opponent away but does so at the cost of leaving himself open and putting his chin in the air. Kelvin has incredible power and I believe will KO Till within the 1st round in my official prediction. However, Darren Till thrives in the underdog role (Cerrone/Wonderboy) and we have not seen how much more power and chin he will have not dropping down to 170. Also, worth noting, Gastellum had a tough weight cut and made weight 1 minute prior to the close of weigh-ins, it will be interesting to see the effect that has tomorrow.

Stephen Thompson -130 vs. Vicente Luque +100 -- Welterweight (Thompson -130)

Very close line as it should be for this fight. Thompson a point karate fighter and Luque a powerful Muay Thai fighter should make for an awesome chess match. I like Wonderboy at -130 for this one. Luque will struggle with the movement of Thompson and I see Wonderboy being very cautious coming off the Pettis KO loss and frustrating Luque to a decision W.

Blagoy Ivanov -130 vs. Derrick Lewis +100 -- Heavyweight (Ivanov -130/Over 2.5)

I so badly want to go with Lewis in this one but my head and gut say Ivanov. I will say the one bet I really like is the over 2.5 rounds. Ivanov has gone to decision all 3 fights in the UFC with the likes of Rothwell, JDS, and Tuivasa. Surprisingly, all of Lewis's wins have come by decision or KO's after the 2.5 mark in all but one fight. What I'm saying here is Lewis has the power to KO Ivanov at anytime but usually is only able to catch them once they are worn down. I think Ivanov is able to fight smart and win a decisive decision at -130.

Gregor Gillespie -175 vs. Kevin Lee +145 -- Lightweight (Gillespie -175)

This will be a very grapple heavy affair to kick off the PPV. I really like Gillespie at -175 for this one. Lee is as talented as anyone in the UFC but has been unable to get over the hump. While he did spend his camp at Tristar which could finally tap into the potential I think Gregor's wrestling will be overwhelming. Lee has shown a weakness with his gas tank and with Gregor's suffocating wrestling attack I don't think it will be a good night for him.

Johnny Walker -150 vs. Corey Anderson +120 -- Light heavyweight (Walker -150) This fight is the classic match-up of polar opposites. Can Walker continue his highlight reel 1st round KO streak or will the grind em out wrestling of Anderson be too much? I almost always go with the veteran wrestler in this type of fight but there is just something special about Johnny Walker. The guy is unfazed by the spotlight and that seems to be where Anderson comes up short. He has shown a weakness with high-level strikers in the past and I think the unpredictable nature of Walker will overwhelm him. Take Walker and the under 1.5 rounds.