UFC 251 Live from Fight Island: Masvidal vs Usman, Stitty Wap Sports Preview and Predictions

Another week of UFC means another week for me to lose some money on fights. I have been absolutely ice cold since the Tony Ferguson gif post and have slipped into a Cowboy Cerrone-esque cold streak. But today is a new day, time to throw on the Dana White “So you want to be a fighter?” speech and get back in the win column. We have three count ‘em three championship fights this Saturday, July 11th on ESPN+. Live from Fight Island on Yas Island in Abu Dhabi it’s UFC 251. And if you needed any other reason to watch a card from Fight Island, Jorge Masvidal is stepping up on a week’s notice to fight for the undisputed belt. Buy the PPV, read my blog, and let’s make some fucking $$$ this weekend.

OVERALL RECORD: 59-26 (5-6 last)

LOCK OF THE NIGHT: 0-0 (Rose Namajunas)

UPSET: 0-0 (Jose Aldo)

UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal fight card, odds

• Kamaru Usman (-300) vs. Jorge Masvidal (+240) (Welterweight Title, 170)

• Alexander Volkanovski (-220) vs. Max Holloway (+180) (Featherweight Title, 145)

• Petr Yan (-230) vs. Jose Aldo (+190) (Vacant Bantamweight Title, 135)

• Jessica Andrade (+165) vs. Rose Namajunas (-195) (Strawweight, 115)

• Amanda Ribas (-800) vs. Paige VanZant (+550) (Strawweight, 115)

• Volkan Oezdemir (-165) vs. Jiri Prochazka (+140) (Light Heavyweight, 205)

• Elizeu Dos Santos (-105) vs. Muslim Salikhov (-115) (Welterweight, 170)

• Makwan Amirkhani (-195) vs. Danny Henry (+165) (Featherweight, 145)

• Leonardo Santos (-190) vs. Roman Bogatov (+160) (Lightweight, 155)

• Marcin Tybura (-110) vs. Alexandr Romanov (-110) (Heavyweight)

• Raulian Paiva (-195) vs. Zhalgas Zhumagulov (+165) (Flyweight, 125)

• Karol Rosa (-220) vs. Vanessa Melo (+180) (Women's Bantamweight, 135)

• Martin Day (-190) vs. Davey Grant (+160) (Bantamweight, 135)

#RideWithStittywap (via CBS)

Men’s Welterweight Title/Main Event (170)

C: Kamaru "The Nigerian Nightmare" Usman, (16-1 MMA, 11-0 UFC), (Favorite) #3: Jorge "Gamebred" Masvidal, (35-13 MMA, 12-6 UFC), (Underdog)

It's very rare you get an upgrade in the Main Event when a fighter is forced out but that's exactly what happened when it was announced just a week ago that Gilbert Burns had Covid-19 and Jorge Masvidal would be taking his place. That being said, "Gamebred" has been fucking with our head's saying he has only been in the gym 2-3 times a week, eating pizza on the plane while needing to drop 20 lbs, etc. But, that's the reason they call him "Gamebred", this dude has been fighting for 17 years, no way he is going to be ready for this fight especially with all the heat and bad blood these guys have.

This is a classic striker vs wrestler match-up with a short timeframe for each guy to prepare. Jorge has been bringing in top level wrestlers in anticipation for this fight but that still probably won't be enough to prepare for such an elite level wrestler like Usman. Usman has been preparing for his teammate Gilbert Burns so it will be interesting to see if this will throw a wrench in his preparation or if it simply is about him imposing his will. Either way, we should expect to see some crazy shit on Saturday night.

BET/PREDICTION (Usman by Decision)

I will be rooting for "Street Jesus" but it is probably inevitable that Marty Usman ragdolls Jorge for 25 minutes. No matter how many high-level wrestlers you bring in it takes a very long time to prepare for the level of wrestling Usman has. Couple that with the fact Jorge has not been super focused in a fight camp, the cardio should favor Kamaru as well. Jorge has the ability to do something crazy like he did with the flying knee against Ben Askren, but outside of that I do not see how he can maintain his power over 5 rounds, especially with the pace and pressure Usman puts on people.

Men's Featherweight Title/Co-Main Event (145)

C: Alexander "The Great" Volkanovski, (21-1 MMA, 8-0 UFC) (Favorite)

#1: Max "Blessed" Holloway, (21-5 MMA, 17-5 UFC) (Underdog)

One of the least talked about rematches in UFC history, the people's Featherweight GOAT had his title reign snapped by the City Kickboxing stud Alexander "The Great" Volkanovski. The fight was pretty clearly for Volk which might be the reason for the lack of hype, but, I would never count "Blessed" out in any fight. Hopefully, Max was joking about only training over Zoom because he needs an answer for the Paul Bunyan tree choppers Volkanovski calls legs. If Max is able to keep Volkanovski from chopping the legs and getting inside this will be a dog fight for the full 25 minutes.

PREDICTION/BET (Volkanovski by Decision)

I'd love to pick Hiker Holloway here but I have to go with Alexander The Great. There is a reason City Kickboxing has been on absolute fire over the past few years, Eugene Bareman is one the best coaches in the game and always makes perfect adjustments fight to fight. It concerns me that Max believes he won the first fight and that Volkanovski was "point-fighting". If this fight was a little ways down the road I might take Max but I do not think he had the necessary time to adjust to what Alex brings and I see it going similar to the first fight.

Men's Vacant Bantamweight Title (135)

#1: Petr "No Mercy" Yan, (14-1 MMA, 6-0 UFC)

#6: Jose "Junior" Aldo, (28-6 MMA, 10-5 UFC)

UPSET OF THE NIGHT PICK! The train stops here, Jose Aldo will defeat Petr Yan to claim the Vacant UFC Bantamweight (135) title and become the promotion’s next two-weight (145) World Champion.

Petr Yan has been nothing short of spectacular thus far in his UFC career. Six fights in and he is already fighting for his first world title. He will face his toughest challenge thus far though in the former Featherweight (145) long-reigning champion, Jose Aldo. This will be Aldo's second fight at 135 following a pretty controversial decision loss to #1 Marlon Morares. Don't let that fight fool you though, Aldo looked rejuvanted at the lower weight and still brought his speed and power with him. This will be Yan's first 5-round fight which is why I like the upset pick here along with the fact he likes to stand in the pocket and trade. Even in fights when Yan gets down in the round he has the ability to land one hard punch and turn the tides in his favor. Aldo will have to fight very smart and careful if he wants to walk away with his second belt.

PREDICTION/BET (Aldo by Decision)

This is by no means a done deal for the upset, Yan is so damn good everywhere. The big issue is Yan lacks fear for his opponent's offense and I don't know how that will fare against someone as powerful and experienced as Aldo. Aldo can trade with the best of the best and can also fight very smart and technical over 5 rounds, Yan has not had the opportunity to showcase that yet. I also really like Aldo's leg kicking ability, something Jimmie Rivera took advantage of in his fight with Petr. Aldo does have a tendency to keep his head on center so there is always the KO threat but for the $$$ I'm taking Aldo.

LOCK OF THE NIGHT (Namajunas over Andrade)

The easy choice here would be Amanda Ribas (-800) vs Paige VanZant (+500) but I actually love “Thug Rose” Namajunas in this match-up. This fight is actually a rematch from May 2019 which saw Rose lose her Women’s Bantamweight Title to Jessica Andrade via Slam KO. This will be Rose’s first fight back since that fight and ring rust could play a factor.

However, that can be very misleading about how the match-up actually played out. Rose was in full control of the fight, picking Andrade apart, mixing up her attacks, and looked to be headed to a pretty dominant title defense. The fight completely changed as Rose went for an ill-fated Flying Armbar and as a result was slammed on the back of her head unconscious. I truly believe Rose is the much superior fighter everywhere and will cruise to a 30-27 victory here in her return at Fight Island in Abu Dhabi. BET THE HOUSE, on “Thug Rose”.

FIGHT OF THE NIGHT (Prochazka/Oezdemir)

IF this card wasn't already going to do massive PPV numbers, this fight will certainly help. Former Rizin Light Heavyweight Champion (205) Jiri Prochazka makes his UFC debut against former title challenger and top 10 caliber KO artist Volkan Oezdemir. I also picked this fight to go under the 1.5 rounds because this will be a slugfest from the opening bell. Both guys will stand toe-to-toe and look for the big shot to end the night early, can Prochazka prove his 10-fight win streak was legit or will Oezdemir be too much of a step up in competition? This will be a great fight and one I think Uncle Dana will be handing out bonuses for.

NOTABLE FIGHTS Paige VanZant/Amanda Ribas

How the mighty have fallen. Once considered the next big Women’s UFC star, some even saying the next Ronda Rousey (idiots) PVZ looks to be on her way out of the promotion and joining her husband, Austin Vanderford, in Bellator. This is the last fight of her deal and she has stated to Ariel Helwani among others that she wants to test out free agency. Considering she refused to renegotiate her current deal and claims she makes more money on Instagram than she does fighting, this relationship looks to be headed for an ugly divorce.

Another classic UFC tactic on full display here, give a fighter a very difficult fight for the last fight of the deal and hope they lose in order to sink their market rate. Which is pretty obvious considering PVZ is a +550 underdog here. PVZ will be moonwalking her way out of the UFC with another L on the record.

UFC VEGAS 251 PICKS

PROP BETS

Under: Prochazka/Oezdemir (1.5 rounds), Dos Santos/Salikhov (2.5 rounds)

Parlay: Oezdemir, Paiva, Amirkhani, Namajunas