World Famous Stitty Wap Bets: UFC 246 (McGregor Vs. Cerrone)

He's back. THE KING IS BACK. All the talk, all the bad press, all the anticipation is over. The Champ, Champ is back and he takes on the BMF Cowboy Cerrone who holds the all-time wins, finishes, and head-kick KO records in the UFC. "There is no bad blood but there will be blood." This will be fireworks and a fight you don't want to miss. These dudes are ready to throw down. I break down the fights for you filthy casuals and give you my guide to getting rich. #RideWithStittyWap

Now that we have your attention and set the stage let's get into what you fools really came for. I should charge you for this but I'm a giving guy so thank me later.

MAIN CARD

UFC Welterweight Division Main Event (170)

#4 "The Notorious" Conor McGregor, (21-4 MMA, 9-2 UFC), (-325, Favorite)

Man. This is the Conor I've been waiting for, for a long long long time. When you hear his coaches talk, Dana talk, and everyone in media talk about the re-dedication and fire, it almost makes you want to smash up some bus windows. But in reality, this is a massive fight for Conor. It's crazy to think a crossroad fight comes for a guy that lost to a 26-0 fighter after 2 years off. But as is with the UFC, you have to win. The luster of Conor's career and achievements can take a major hit with a loss and all indications from his camp and McGregor seem to solidify it. This video shows a major adjustment to Conor's more traditional karate stance, sideways/long with the hands low and at range. For this one, McGregor needs to stay well aware of the leg kicks (moving that lead leg in to avoid getting that chewed up) and getting the hands up out of the break. If he leaves the pocket with the hands low it could be game over.

For Conor, there is a clear book, a Children's book, as Conor calls it, On how to beat Cowboy. Look back at the (Till, Masvidal, Pettis, Diaz, Dos Anjos). Southpaw pressure fighters/boxers. Conor needs to get Cowboy on the back foot to neutralize the kicking ability and force Cowboy to box with him. Conor is a master of speed and accuracy as seen from almost all of his knock-outs. Cowboy has issues with head movement and takes a lot of shots when fighters are able to smother him with pressure. When you see the Eddie Alvarez fight, Conor's lead hand footwork were world class and often what people refer to when they speak about the "Old Conor."

Watch the lead hand, this is absolutely critical for everything Conor is setting up.

1. As is the case with most fighters, Conor is using it to find his range. He knows exactly where he can land his shots while staying far enough away from all of Eddie's punches.

2. Footwork. Conor is using the lead hand as a distraction to get the lead foot outside of Eddie's and lining up the left hand/teep with the center of Eddie's body and sets up escape routes and angles for other shots he won't see coming.

3. Speaking of distraction, look how annoyed Eddie is getting with that hand. He is focused so hard on that lead hand it makes him over extend and make bad decisions in the striking. Conor is effectively taking away Eddie's jab while utilizing it to keep his perfect range and turning into that left.

4. Wrestling/clinch defense. Conor already has a gauge on the range for striking but it also gives him space to avoid the take-down/clinch. By having that hand out there, he is able to post the hand on the neck and either counter or escape whenever Eddie tries to close the distance.

Bang. That's all she wrote. Two-weight World Champion.

#5 Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone, (36-13 MMA, 20-10 UFC), (+250, Underdog)

Anyone. Anywhere. Anytime. No one embodies this more than the Bad Motherfucker known as Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone.

Wow. I mean that's impressive. Now yes the guy fights 5 times a year but who cares? This dude is a bonafide bad ass and was chomping at the bit for YEARS for this bout. The talent has always been there for Cowboy, he has elite kickboxing, slick submission skills, and a no back down attitude. Cerrone has been his own worst enemy at times, he is a notoriously slow starter and can't seem to get over the hump in the big fight. This fight offers a number of questions that he can put to rest, including how he struggles with southpaws that put the pressure on. Can Cowboy finally break through against the game's elite?

A few things I take away from these Head-Kick KO's:

1. Distance. Cowboy is the one pushing the action and staying right in kicking range. You can notice a few seconds before he will flip out the jab reset and throw the head-kick that instantly crumbles the opponent. The hands are nothing more than a set-up and range finder.

2. Reaction. You'll notice the overreaction to ever movement Cowboy makes with his hands. The opponent overextends on every parry and keeps the hands low. In doing so Cerrone throws the cross (with no intent to do damage) cross body to assure the over-extension and lands a clean head-kick.

3. Pressure. You can't let Cerrone dictate the pace. If he is able to move forward and get loose and flow with all of his weapons, you are in for a short night. Make him uncomfortable, make him react, MOST IMPORTANTLY don't give him space!

I love this fight because it reminds me so much of the McGregor fight. Darren Till's stance/style/striking is super similar to the Notorious one. If there has been one thing that everyone has said is McGregor's Achilles heel, it's the grappling. Watch as Till throws the Left Cowboy times it BEAUTIFULLY and takes him to the floor. Cerrone might not be the grind 'em out wrestler that Khabib is, but he can time the double when the time calls for it. The big advantage Till had is size, which Conor will not have. I do think Conor's ground game and wrestling are severely underrated, Cowboy is no joke. If Cowboy can get the fight there, he has elite level submissions and sweeps.

If you notice, Cerrone goes right to the clinch and presses Till to the fence. Now Till does a very good job of creating space and taking minimal damage and utilizing very little energy. Conor has shown the penchant to drop serious energy rounds 3-5, so Cowboy could try to slow the fight down and make it a gritty fight.

PREDICTION: Conor KO 1st Round. Under 1.5 rounds. Does NOT Go Distance.

In the end, I think history speaks for itself. Cowboy has said many many times in interviews and through the led up he wants to throw down and see if he can hang with the best. Believing that to be true and believing that this is the best Conor has ever been with training and in the gym, this could be ugly for 'ole Cowboy. When I see the Till fight, I just see this one going so similar. Conor pushing the pressure, using that lead hand to keep distant and firing the left right behind it. The Conor has no cardio or wrestling/jits narrative is so overly ridiculous, Cowboy said so himself whenever anyone asks. I think this goes pretty quickly and swiftly.

UFC Women's Bantamweight Division (135, Rematch)

#3 Holly "The Preacher's Daughter" Holm (12-5 MMA, 5-5 UFC), (-140, Favorite)

#5 Raquel "Rocky" Pennington, (10-7 MMA, 7-4 UFC), (+110, Underdog)

In the co-main we have a rematch of Holly Holm and Pennington. They fought all the way back in Holm's debut, which went down as a Decision for Holly. The gameplan was pretty straight forward, Holly wanted to use her kickboxing and stay long, Raquel wanted to press her up against the cage and take her down. Being that Holly got the best of the 1st go-round and has vastly improved her wrestling/grappling I don't really see how this one goes any different.

PREDICTION: Holly Holm by Decision.

UFC Heavyweight Division (206+)

#12 Aleksei "The Boa Constrictor" Oleinik (57-13-1 MMA, 6-4 UFC), (+110, Underdog)

Maurice "The Crochet Boss" Greene, (8-3 MMA, 3-1 UFC), (-140, Favorite)

Another classic Striker/Grappler match-up at Heavyweight. You have a super veteran fighter in Oleinik coming off a couple brutal KO losses against Mo Greene whom is also coming off a KO loss. Aleksei has some the most prolific submission wins in the UFC. If he can get this fight to the ground I really don't see Greene having a chance. However, the big IF is can he get it there and based on his last couple of fights I'd be hard-pressed to say so. Aleksei is super vulnerable in the stand-up and Mo has real KO power. I don't see this one going to the judges either way and also love the Under 1.5 rounds and not going the distance.

PREDICTION: Mo Greene KO, Under 1.5 rounds.

UFC Strawweight Division (115)

#6 Claudia "Claudinha" Gadelha, (17-4 MMA, 6-4 UFC), (-120, Pick 'Em)

#11 Alexa Grasso, (11-3 MMA, 3-3 UFC), (-110, Pick 'Em)

Dana sneaking a little Latin flair into this one. Both ladies looked to be the next big thing at 125 and have kinda hit a lull in their careers. Gadelha most known for her super competitve fights with JJ, one being for the belt, has at times looked like the division's elite. Her wrestlin and jiu jitsu has given opponents some major fits. The problem? Cardio. Claudia has a tendency to really gas herself out in fights and routinely blow her cardio within the 1st round. Grasso on the other hand is just 2-3 in her last 5 fights and the problem is pretty clear, the ground. Outside of a very close loss to Felice Herrig her opponents have avoided her superior stand-up and chose to exploit her grappling. I always like the wrestlers in close match-ups and I especially like Claudia as she has changed camps to Mark Henry's gym in hopes of improving her stamina.

PREDICTION: Gadelha by Decision.

UFC Bantamweight Division (135)

#11 Anthony "Showtime" Pettis, (22-9 MMA, 9-8 UFC), (+200, Underdog)

Carlos Diego Ferreira, (16-2 MMA, 7-2 UFC), (-260, Favorite)

An absolute banger to kick-off the main card. Showtime Pettis back down to 55 to take on the en fuego Carlos Diego Ferreira. It is shocking to see Pettis as such a massive underdog against a relatively unknown opponent. This is an odd match-up, Pettis is always matched-up in high profile fights, which makes this one a very high risk fight. But, that is what makes Pettis a star. Much like Cowboy, Pettis struggles with pressure/smothering fighters. As one of the most creative strikers in the sport Pettis can catch anyone with an unsuspecting shot. Ferreira has a lot better boxing than most people give him credit for and will be unrelenting on the floor, which Pettis has had a ton of issue with. This is a very difficult fight to pick and I can this going one of two ways, a finish by Pettis or Ferreira controlling him for a majority. I'm going to take the odds here.

PREDICTION: Pettis by TKO.

PRELIMS

UFC Women's Flyweight Division (125) #7 Roxanne "The Happy Warrior" Modafferi, (23-16 MMA, 2-3 UFC), (+600, Underdog) #9 Maycee "The Future" Barber, (8-0 MMA, 4-0 UFC), (-1000, Favorite)

Classic UFC match making (Dana you sly SOB). What better way to highlight an absolute superstar in the making in Maycee Barber as she continues her route to become the youngest UFC champ ever (Jon Jones 23 years old). With a W here she can be well on her way. Standing in her way? The unrelenting and ruthless "Happy Warrior" Roxanne Modafferi. Now don't get me wrong, Maycee has that McGregor feel to her (ironic isn't it?) the unwavering confidence, clearly stated goals, and, most importantly, results. Now Roxanne is a veteran and has derailed a hype train in Antonina Shevchenko, but, Maycee is a different animal. Maycee needs to avoid a slow-pace grappling match and use her speed and massive boxing advantage.

PREDICTION: Barber 1st Round TKO.

UFC Featherweight Division (145)

Andre "Touchy" Fili, (20-6 MMA, 8-5 UFC), (+110, Underdog)

Sodiq Yusuff, (10-1 MMA, 4-0 UFC), (-140, Favorite)

Another sneaky good fight. Fili just gets better and better with each fight. Winning 4 of his last 5 (and could arguably by 5 in a row) with a finish in the last one. When you look at the fight he has lost, they have come against some really talented guys at 145. But, Yusuff might possibly be the best. Sodiq is an absolute killer and while Fili will be the toughest opponent to date, I love Sodiq's advantage in the power. Fili gets hit too much for my liking and one punch from Sodiq can end this one early, and I think it will.

PREDICTION: Yusuff by TKO.

UFC Flyweight Division (125)

#7 Tim Elliott (16-9-1 MMA, 7-7 UFC), (+105, Underdog)

#12 Askar "The Bullet" Askarov, (10-0-1 MMA, 0-0-1 UFC), (-135, Favorite)

This fight should be a glorified combat bjj match, and a fantastic one at that. Askar is currently in UFC purgatory, having his debut end in a draw against Brandon Moreno. Elliott on the other hand is one of the very best scramblers in the UFC. This fight figures to take place on the mat for a majority of the bout, the question is can Elliott use his craftiness to can away with the win? In my opinion, no. Outside of the Moreno fight, Askar has finished every opponent. He has unbelievable submission ability and Elliott has a tendency to put himself in some bad positions and give up his neck. I see Askarov finding the neck and getting the tap.

PREDICTION: Askarov by Submission.

UFC Lightweight Division (155)

Drew Dober, (21-9 MMA, 7-4 UFC), (+260, Underdog)

Nasrat Haqparast, (11-2 MMA, 3-1 UFC), (-340, Favorite)

This is the way you kick-off the McGregor/Cowboy prelims, nothing more than two dudes looking to put each other into 2021. I really think this will be tough fight for both guys and well worth the fan's attention. Dober is a hard-nosed veteran who has looked very solid lately and will be right in this fight from bell to bell. Nasrat is looking like a real talent at 55 and has some vicious power and speed. Can he utilize that speed and power to put away a guy with so much experience and only one KO loss in 30 fights? This should be a lot closer than expected but I like Haqparast.

PREDICTION: Haqparast by Decision.